It was not just the experts, the politicians or the comedians who got it so historically, incredibly wrong. The professional pollsters who devised meticulous methodologies for forecasting election results were also caught terribly wrong.
The Princeton Election Consortium gave Clinton a 99% chance of winning. The Huffington Post gave her 98%, PredictWise gave her 89%, and the New York Times gave her 85%. Even FiveThirtyEight, which was the most bullish on Trump, gave Clinton over a 71% chance of winning.
All of this gave us the most shocking election night and election morning in recent memory. The polls were wrong. And because we are obsessed with predicting opinions rather than listening to them, we did not see it coming.
So, the World woke up this morning believing that Republican candidate Donald Trump had a 15% chance of winning based on polling predictions – roughly the same chance of rolling a total of six if you have two dice. Despite those odds, the next US president will be Trump.
The piece ‘In the Hall of the Mountain King‘ by Edvard Krieg is played as the title character Peer Gynt, in a dream-like fantasy, enters ‘Dovregubbens (the troll Mountain King’s) hall’.
The scene’s introduction continues: ‘There is a great crowd of troll courtiers, gnomes and goblins. Donald Trump (Dovregubben) sits on his throne, with crown and sceptre, surrounded by his children and relatives. Peer Gynt stands before him. There is a tremendous uproar in the hall.’